A BLACK SWAN is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier into a narrative about a turkey before Thanksgiving who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable en meer dan één miljoen andere boeken zijn beschikbaar voor Amazon Kindle. The term "black swan" was originally commonly used in sixteenth century Europe to describe a sense of improbability. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Free shipping for many products! One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect. In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Taleb addresses human inability to process natural randomness, particularly combinations of low predictability and large impact. Nasim Nicholas Taleb is a well-known voice in the subject areas of risk, randomness, and uncertainty. en meer dan één miljoen … Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new at the best online prices at eBay! The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Krasnova became famous. After viewing product detail pages, look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Reviewed in the United States on April 19, 2016. Mediocristan environments can safely use Gaussian distribution. [20] Hume's attack against induction and causation is based primarily on the limits of everyday experience and so too, the limitations of scientific knowledge. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan… In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Talebaddresses human inability to process natural randomness, particularly combinations of low predictability and large impact. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. His stories about his buddy buddy experiences with Mandelbrot leave you wanting to puke if they are real and also pissed that you wasted 5 pages on thinking about something that probably didn't even happen. Really a waste of time. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable [Chinese Edition] at the best online prices at eBay! ", There is a contradiction; this book is a story, and I prefer to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our preference for the dangerous compression of narratives.... You need a story to displace a story. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & 0 more 4.2 out of 5 stars 1,445 ratings Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.. Aristotle's "Prior Analytics" is the most likely original reference that makes use of example syllogisms involving the predicates "white", "black", and "swan." Find all the books, read about the author, and more. He uses an exact metaphor, the Black Swan idea to argue against the "unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain—white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti. Mathematics professor David Aldous argued that "Taleb is sensible (going on prescient) in his discussion of financial markets and in some of his general philosophical thought, but tends toward irrelevance or ridiculous exaggeration otherwise. ‘The Black Swan’ is an interesting and unusual book, written in an unusual style by an unusual author. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. [14] He then takes the reader into the history of skepticism. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Since no one reads, hears, or sees black swans, things that are improbable can be related to the chances of someone finding a black swan - an apparent metaphor. He paints a picture of how we have been indoctrinated with modern "knowledge" and have been fooled by it. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. WikiProject Books (Rated Start-class) This ... Random event Happening in your life are black swan, The 26/11 happened in Mumbai for India was a black swan but … The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. This item: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (1st (first) Edition… by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Unknown Binding $22.91 Only 2 left in stock - order soon. Being no expert in finance not sure how much 'actionable intelligence' I was able to gain in terms of investment ideas but his work does apply to many other fields. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. He says that the bell-curve doesn't predict black swans, i.e. He gives a cursory brush to many topics that you can tell he has heard about once and his explanation is the extent of his knowledge on them. extreme negative or positive events. In this book, he explains the phenomenon of Black Swans, i.e. The term black swan was a Latin expression: its oldest reference is in the poet Juvenal's expression that "a good person is as rare as a black swan" ("rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno", 6.165). I hope to discover that he has done more beyond the 2nd edition. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis, and Review . Reviewed in the United States on September 5, 2017. Likewise, not matching the idea of success … Reviewed in the United States on January 1, 2019. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He really harps, literally every 5 pages, on how the bell-curve is Satan's brainchild. Seriously, anyone versed in any of these subjects will be able to tell after reading a little bit that the guy that is shouting phony at everyone else is actually the biggest phony of anyone. Prime members enjoy FREE Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series, and Kindle books. I waited for 200 pages to see if it would kick off and get going into something interesting or insightful, and then finished the last 100 pages so I could write a review knowing I had given the entire book a chance. Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & … A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. 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